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Psychology

Availability Heuristic

The tendency to judge the probability of an event by how easily examples come to mind. Vivid, memorable memecoin winners (WIF, GOAT, FARTCOIN) feel more probable than the 98.6% failure base rate supports because they are cognitively accessible.

See also
Psychology Lottery Effect Overweighting low-probability, high-magnitude outcomes because they are vivid and memorable. Formalized in Kahneman and Tversky's prospect theory as the probability weighting function. WIF, GOAT, and FARTCOIN are three names from a field of 11.5 million tokens that died in 2025 alone. → Psychology Survivorship Bias Drawing conclusions only from data that survived a selection process while the failures are invisible. In memecoins: WIF, GOAT, and FARTCOIN are three names from 11.5 million tokens that died in 2025 alone. The Trending tab surfaces the survivors; the corpses have no panel. → Psychology Base Rate The underlying statistical frequency of an outcome in a population. Ignoring base rates is one of the most foundational errors in probabilistic reasoning. On Pump.fun: 98.6% of tokens end below $1,000 in liquidity; roughly 0.63% of launches graduate. →
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