Enter Platform
← Glossary
Psychology

Base Rate

The underlying statistical frequency of an outcome in a population. Ignoring base rates is one of the most foundational errors in probabilistic reasoning. On Pump.fun: 98.6% of tokens end below $1,000 in liquidity; roughly 0.63% of launches graduate.

See also
Psychology Lottery Effect Overweighting low-probability, high-magnitude outcomes because they are vivid and memorable. Formalized in Kahneman and Tversky's prospect theory as the probability weighting function. WIF, GOAT, and FARTCOIN are three names from a field of 11.5 million tokens that died in 2025 alone. → Tokenomics Graduation The transition from Pump.fun's bonding curve to a live AMM pool (PumpSwap since March 2025). Requires roughly 85 SOL in buy pressure; LP tokens are automatically burned. Approximately 0.63% of launches graduated in September 2025. Graduation is the minimum threshold of survival, not evidence of quality. → Psychology Survivorship Bias Drawing conclusions only from data that survived a selection process while the failures are invisible. In memecoins: WIF, GOAT, and FARTCOIN are three names from 11.5 million tokens that died in 2025 alone. The Trending tab surfaces the survivors; the corpses have no panel. →
← Back to Glossary Search all content →