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Psychology

Plan-Followed vs Plan-Broken

The journaling distinction between trades where the pre-committed plan was executed and trades where it was deviated from. Expectancy must be calculated separately for each. If plan-broken expectancy matches or beats plan-followed, the written plan is not a plan — it is a written suggestion.

See also
Psychology Decision Quality The soundness of a decision evaluated against the information available at the time it was made, before the outcome was known. The Architect's only unit of judgment. A plan-followed loss is a high-quality decision with bad variance; an unplanned YOLO that printed is a low-quality decision with good luck. → Psychology Architect (Archetype) The trader archetype anchored to process and thesis rather than PnL. Identity is separable from any single outcome. The Architect records, reviews, and compounds learning. A bad outcome on a plan-followed trade is variance, not a verdict. → Psychology Resulting Annie Duke's term (Thinking in Bets, 2018) for the error of judging decision quality by outcome quality. A bad decision that produced a good outcome is still a bad decision. A good decision that produced a bad outcome is still a good decision. The most expensive wins in trading teach the wrong lesson. →
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