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Psychology

Hindsight Bias

Perceiving past events as having been predictable after the fact. Documented by Fischhoff (1975) as creeping determinism. In trading, it corrupts post-mortem reviews by replacing actual pre-outcome reasoning with what would have been correct — making learning structurally impossible without a contemporaneous written record.

See also
Psychology Deliberate Practice Structured repetition with specific goals and immediate, accurate feedback (Ericsson et al., 1993). Without accurate feedback, repetition accumulates hours but not skill. Years of trading without a journal is 1 hour of practice repeated 1,000 times — the loop is broken. → Psychology Resulting Annie Duke's term (Thinking in Bets, 2018) for the error of judging decision quality by outcome quality. A bad decision that produced a good outcome is still a bad decision. A good decision that produced a bad outcome is still a good decision. The most expensive wins in trading teach the wrong lesson. → Psychology Architect (Archetype) The trader archetype anchored to process and thesis rather than PnL. Identity is separable from any single outcome. The Architect records, reviews, and compounds learning. A bad outcome on a plan-followed trade is variance, not a verdict. →
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