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Psychology

Conviction

A thesis held with explicit falsification criteria — specific, observable conditions that, if triggered, would prove the thesis wrong. Articulable in plain language. Held in light rather than in defense: disconfirming evidence sharpens or kills the position, and both outcomes are wins.

See also
Psychology Delusion A thesis without falsification criteria. Sunk cost wearing conviction's clothes. No observable outcome would trigger an exit, which means the position cannot be wrong — it is faith, not analysis. Popper's test: a claim that explains every possible outcome is not a strong claim. → Psychology Falsification Criterion A specific, observable condition that, if it occurred, would prove the trader's thesis wrong. Popper's test for whether a belief is conviction or faith. Before entry: write down 'I would exit this position if ___.' If the blank cannot be filled with something specific, the position is hope, not conviction. → Psychology Architect (Archetype) The trader archetype anchored to process and thesis rather than PnL. Identity is separable from any single outcome. The Architect records, reviews, and compounds learning. A bad outcome on a plan-followed trade is variance, not a verdict. →
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